Tag: Baseball statistics

The Mets Aren’t Just Losing — They’re Losing Wrong

Posted on by metbaseball

The New York Mets have a talent problem. But a single baseball stat reveals something more painful — they have a timing problem. Too often this season, when a game hands them a chance to do damage, they waste it. Runner on second, nobody out? Strikeout. Bases loaded in a close game? Double play.

The statistic that captures this is RE24.

RE24 measures how well a team turns opportunities into runs. Right now, the Mets have the second-worst RE24 in baseball.

According to FanGraphs on May 5, 2026, the Mets team RE24 was -36.36. Only the Giants had a lower one. In contrast, the Yankees lead the majors with a 44.70 RE24 score.

It’s not just coincidence that the Yankees lead the AL East while the Mets are last in the NL East and the Giants are next-to-last in the NL West.

So what is RE24?

At any moment in a game, there are 24 possible base-out situations from no outs, no runners on base to two outs, bases loaded. Each carries an expected number of runs a team should score in a particular base/out instance before the inning ends— a concept Tom Tango developed and popularized.

For example
Nobody on, nobody out → ~0.5 runs
Bases loaded, nobody out → ~2.33 runs
Runner on second, two outs → ~0.33 runs

Be aware that when a plate appearance makes a scoring situation worse, it lowers a team’s RE24.

RE24 asks a simple question: when the situation changes, did you add value or give it away? Over time, that answer becomes a record of execution.

Mediocre production. Outsized damage.

The Mets aren’t among the worst teams at getting on base in these spots. Their average and on-base percentage with runners on rank in the low 20s league-wide — poor, but not disastrous.

This isn’t just lack of talent. It’s how the at-bats end.

The Mets are “losing wrong” because they aren’t just losing—they are wasting their own chances. Even when they get players on base, they constantly make the worst possible outs—like hitting into double plays—which kills their momentum and stops them from scoring. Basically, they are losing games because too often they hurt their own chances every time the opportunity presents itself for them to gain on their opponent.

Why this matters

Underperforming teams don’t take advantage of chances.

At 13–22, the Mets are not just struggling — they’re consistently missing out on opportunities.

That’s harder to watch than being outplayed, because the runs you hoped would score never make it to the scoreboard.

Mets RISP Woes Continue

Posted on by metbaseball

What the team needs is a solution. They have two hitting coaches, only one of four teams doing that, but two seems to be either too many or too few.

What’s your take on the problem? Can you suggest something that might help them?

Mets team batting overall

  • BA: 15th in MLB
  • OBP: 8th
  • SLG: 10th

Mets team batting with runners in scoring position

  • BA: 29th in MLB
  • OBP: 23rd
  • SLG: 22nd

The team’s .212 batting average with runners in scoring position is its third-lowest (in a season) in its history, and it hasn’t been below .220 since 1981. That 44 years!

In 2024, the Mets hit .268 with runners in scoring position.

Its OBP of .310 isn’t as bad. The last time the Mets finished a season at or below .310 was in 2016, and they ended that season with an 87-75 record.

Nine Has Not Been the Mets Lucky Number in 2025

Posted on by metbaseball

It appears that the Mets have been struggling when facing the other team’s ninth-inning pitcher, often likely their closer, so far in 2025. As a group, they are batting just .176 in that situation with Mark Vientos having the most trouble getting on base.

Juan Soto has a .600 OBP despite not getting a single hit. Tyrone Taylor is their hits’ leader in the table with three though he’s hitting just .239 overall.

Despite the ninth-inning struggles, the Mets are tied with the Dodgers for the most wins, 27.

In the same ninth-inning scenario, the Dodgers are hitting .216 with eight hits in 37 at-bats. While better than the Mets, it is not close to the Diamondbacks’ average of .344.

Overall, the MLB average is .125.

The Mets were much better in 2024.

Welcome to Wild Pitches

Posted on by metbaseball

Casual fans see the final score. Dedicated fans follow the standings. But the truly curious ask why a team’s record looks the way it does. In this new section of the blog, we go beyond the traditional stats you’ll find in the box score or hear repeated during game broadcasts. We dig into the subtle numbers, the patterns hiding in plain sight, crazy wins and losses, and the trends that hint at what’s really going on beneath a team’s win-loss column.

Take the Mets, for example. If it feels like they’ve burned through their bullpen this year, you’re not alone—but the numbers tell a more nuanced story. Through early May, they ranked 15th in total relief appearances across MLB. So what’s behind that gut feeling? Could it be that the Mets aren’t cycling through arms quickly, but instead leaning too heavily on the same few relievers each night? Maybe the eye test is noticing something the stats don’t show—until you dig a little deeper.

That’s exactly what this space is for. We’ll unpack the things that don’t get discussed on SportsCenter or in post-game pressers: bullpen usage quirks, pitch sequencing trends, unexpected lineup efficiencies, and more. If you’ve ever found yourself thinking, “That seems weird…” while watching a game, this is the place where we’ll chase that hunch with data.