The New York Mets have a talent problem. But a single baseball stat reveals something more painful — they have a timing problem. Too often this season, when a game hands them a chance to do damage, they waste it. Runner on second, nobody out? Strikeout. Bases loaded in a close game? Double play.

The statistic that captures this is RE24.

RE24 measures how well a team turns opportunities into runs. Right now, the Mets have the second-worst RE24 in baseball.

According to FanGraphs on May 5, 2026, the Mets team RE24 was -36.36. Only the Giants had a lower one. In contrast, the Yankees lead the majors with a 44.70 RE24 score.

It’s not just coincidence that the Yankees lead the AL East while the Mets are last in the NL East and the Giants are next-to-last in the NL West.

So what is RE24?

At any moment in a game, there are 24 possible base-out situations from no outs, no runners on base to two outs, bases loaded. Each carries an expected number of runs a team should score in a particular base/out instance before the inning ends— a concept Tom Tango developed and popularized.

For example
Nobody on, nobody out → ~0.5 runs
Bases loaded, nobody out → ~2.33 runs
Runner on second, two outs → ~0.33 runs

Be aware that when a plate appearance makes a scoring situation worse, it lowers a team’s RE24.

RE24 asks a simple question: when the situation changes, did you add value or give it away? Over time, that answer becomes a record of execution.

Mediocre production. Outsized damage.

The Mets aren’t among the worst teams at getting on base in these spots. Their average and on-base percentage with runners on rank in the low 20s league-wide — poor, but not disastrous.

This isn’t just lack of talent. It’s how the at-bats end.

The Mets are “losing wrong” because they aren’t just losing—they are wasting their own chances. Even when they get players on base, they constantly make the worst possible outs—like hitting into double plays—which kills their momentum and stops them from scoring. Basically, they are losing games because too often they hurt their own chances every time the opportunity presents itself for them to gain on their opponent.

Why this matters

Underperforming teams don’t take advantage of chances.

At 13–22, the Mets are not just struggling — they’re consistently missing out on opportunities.

That’s harder to watch than being outplayed, because the runs you hoped would score never make it to the scoreboard.