10 First-Half Mets Pitching Observations

  1. When there were runners on base, the best starter* on the mound — based on opponents’ batting average — was Jacob deGrom. Batters hit only .154. The second-best starter was Taijuan Walker (.200 BA). The hardest-hit starter was David Peterson (.273 BA).
  2. When there were no runners on base, among starters deGrom had the lowest opponents’ batting average (.118) with Walker second (.194). Peterson had the highest BA (.245).
  3. With runners in scoring position, deGrom and Walker were the top two and Peterson last; however, his slash line in that context was unusually high: .381/.519/.524. Taijuan Walker had the best run value: -11.1.
  4. With the bases empty, deGrom run value of -20.3 was not only the highest on the Mets but also the highest in Major League Baseball with Kevin Gausman second and ex-Met Zack Wheeler third.
  5. Among relievers, when there were runners on base opponents hit .342 against Sean Reid-Foley with an OBP of .390. At the opposite end of the spectrum was Drew Smith, who held hitters to a .176 BA. Tied for second-best with a .200 BA were Trevor May and Seth Lugo; however, while Lugo did a better job of keeping hitters off the bases (.259 OBP vs. May’s .298 OBP), May did a better job of preventing on-base runners from scoring, his run value of -4.9 with runners on base noticeably higher than Lugo’s -0.8.
  6. Among relievers when no runners were on base, Edwin Diaz excelled, limiting batters to a .160 BA, just beating out Miguel Castro whose BA was .169. However, when batters got on base against Castro with the bases empty, his SLG was .271 and his OBP was .364, the latter the highest among all Mets pitchers.
  7. Among relievers with runners in scoring position, Trevor May had the best run value (-5.8) and the second-best opponents’ BA (.182), 11 points higher than Jeurys Familia’s. Batters hit .290 or above in this context against four Mets relievers: Sean Reid-Foley (.391), Joey Lucchesi (.333), Edwin Diaz (.294), and Aaron Loup (.300).
  8. With runners in scoring position, two relievers had OBPs above .400: Edwin Diaz (.419) and Sean Reid-Foley (.417). It is one thing for a reliever to allow more than 40% of the batters he faces to get on base. It is another thing if those batters cross the plate. Diaz’s run value of 0.7 is just above average; whereas, Reid-Foley’s of 4.8 is noticeably above average. In fact, he is tied with Jacob Barnes for the highest run value on the Mets when there are runners in scoring position. When there are RISP and a reliever is pitching, the team wants Trevor May on the mound. Then, his slash line is .182/.250/.242.
  9. Among the starters who threw at least 650 fastballs (deGrom, Walker, Peterson, Stroman), opposing batters hit the worst against deGrom’s fastballs (.158 BA) and the highest BA against Stroman’s (.250). Only the Milwaukee’s Freddie Peralta had a lower opposing hitters BA: .143.
  10. Among the starters who threw at least 650 fastballs, deGrom had the highest average pitch velocity (99.2 mph) and Stroman the lowest (91.6) with deGrom’s pitch velocity tops in the majors.
  • * Only includes starters who threw at least 1,000 pitches and relievers who threw at least 250 pitches.
  • Tangotiger on run value: “Every base-out situation has a run potential. And after the event, the new base-out provides a new run potential. The CHANGE in those run potential is what we attribute to the event. A strikeout with bases empty and 0 outs for example turns the run expectancy from .481 runs to .254 runs. And so, the change in run expectancy, or the run value, of the strikeout is -0.227 runs. If the bases are loaded with one out, a strikeout has a run impact of a whopping -0.789 runs.”
  • Thus, run value is how many runs, on average, score as a result of the occurrence of an event, e.g., a single, until the inning’s end.
  • Tangotiger’s new run-value matrix

Data source: Baseball Savant

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