Tag: Mets

Mets Need More Inning-Eaters

Posted on by metbaseball

Since the 2015 season, only two starters have pitched more than 200 innings in a season as a Met.

That’s more than 600 outs per season.

Both have done it three times.

Jacob deGrom did it in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Tom Glavine did it in 2004, 2005, and 2007.

Since 2000, no other Mets pitcher has done it more than twice. Four accomplished that twice: Al Leiter, Steve Trachsel, and Mike Pelfrey, all before 2011, and R. A. Dickey in the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Al Leiter also did it in 1999, so in his Mets career he reached the 200 marker three times.

Before 2017, the last Mets pitcher to do it (once) was Bartolo Colon, who did it in 2014. Others were Pedro Martinez (2005), Johan Santana (2008), Kevin Appier (2001), and Mike Hampton (2000). No Mets pitcher broke the 200 IP barrier in either 2015 or 2016.

Before 2000, Mets pitchers reached the 200 mark much more often with one pitcher, Tom Seaver, doing it 11 times, accomplishing it in every season from 1967 to 1976.

In the last century, it was done most often from 1962-1979 and from 1983-1993, eras when Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack, Dwight Gooden, and David Cone brought fans to their feet in Shea Stadium.

For deGrom to have done it three times in a row in this era when relievers are entering games earlier and earlier shows that he deserves to be ranked among the Mets great starting pitchers, the men who made the mound their monument. His two Cy Young awards acknowledge that.

Note: Al Jackson deserves special credit for getting at least 600 outs in the Mets first two seasons on a team that, in 1962, won 40 games while losing 120, and in won 51 and lost 111. In that second season, Jackson’s record was 13-17, so he notched more than 25% of the team’s victories. His won-lost percentage of .433 was 118 points higher than the Mets’. Though he never had a winning record with the Mets, he was a winner.

A source of the historical data in this article was Baseball Reference.

Trading Noah Syndergaard is a high-risk move for Mets

Posted on by metbaseball

The headline for Mike Puma’s New York Post article reads “Brodie Van Wagenen can’t afford to make wrong Noah Syndergaard call.” But what is the “right call”?

That depends on how much Syndergaard is worth.

Only 26, he should be worth more than Cano and Diaz combined, and look at what the Mets gave away to get those two.

In his five seasons with the Mets, Syndergaard has pitched more than 600 innings, has a 44-27 record, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.59. Let’s see how those numbers –— and others –— stack up against other Mets pitchers, both current and past, after 107 games, which is how many Syndergaard has pitched.

In his career, in 106 starts, Syndergaard has pitched 644 innings. That is the 9th-most among all Mets pitchers after 107 games. And that includes the 2017 season when, because of injury, he pitched only 30.1 innings. If, in the 2017 season, he had pitched as many innings as he averaged in his 2015, 2016, and 2018 seasons –— just over 164 innings pitched, then for his first four seasons he would have pitched over 804 innings, which would have advanced him to the top of the list, replacing Doc Gooden who pitched 803 innings and moving him ahead of Tom Seaver, who pitched 799.2 innings.

In comparison, Jacob deGrom ranks 7th with 680.2 and Zack Wheeler ranks 12th in innings pitched with 631. So, Syndergaard has pitched 44.2 fewer innings than deGrom but 13 more than Wheeler. Among the other, current Mets starters, Steven Matz has pitched only 91 games with 87 starts and Jason Vargas played his first two seasons for Florida.

Syndergaard’s career winning percentage of .620 is 5th-highest among all Mets starters with at least 40 wins. Only Gooden, Seaver, Darling, and Koosman are ahead of him, with Gooden the leader with a .753 winning percentage.

Among Syndergaard’s teammates, deGrom has a winning percentage of .584. Wheeler’s is .535 and Matz’s .455.

Besides innings pitched and winning percentage, another measure of a pitcher’s value is strikeout-to-walk ratio.

How important is strikeout-to-walk ratio?

Kerry Miller wrote that

“Strikeout rate per inning has changed drastically throughout the history of the game, but strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio is a rather consistent measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness. Whether you’re talking 1889, 1936 or 2014, a 2.5 K/BB ratio is strong, anything better than a 3.0 is great and pitchers above 4.0 are just plain lethal.”

In Web article “Major League Baseball’s Top 10 Starting Pitchers of All Time”

In 2019, Syndergard’s strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.44 is 7th-best among all MLB pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.

During Syndergaard’s career, he has struck out 697 batters while walking only 152 for a SO/BB ratio of 4.59. It is not only the highest among current Mets starters, it is the highest in Mets history for all starters with more than five starts. The 2nd-highest among all Mets is deGrom’s 4.15. The only other current Mets starter in the top 20 is Steven Matz, whose SO/BB ratio of 3.04 ranks him 20th.

Among past Mets with at least 100 starts, filling out the top 5 are Matt Harvey with a SO/BB ratio of 3.61, Doc Gooden with a 3.29 ratio, and Tom Seaver with 2.82.

When it comes to trade value, Syndergaard should be worth as much as Chris Archer.

In his first 107 games, Archer pitched 631.0 innings, 13 fewer than Syndergaard, had a winning percentage of .473, 147 points lower than Syndergaard’s .620, and had a SO/BB ratio of 2.90, noticeably lower than Syndergaard’s 4.59. When traded in 2018, for Archer the Rays got from the Pirates outfielder Austin Meadows and right-handers Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz, all well-regarded prospects.

Others also rate Syndergaard highly.

Tim Britton of theathletic.com calls Syndergaard “an ace-caliber pitcher under control for 2 1/2 more seasons.”

Abby Caldwell of the Blog Red Machine wrote that

“Syndergaard is already very good and will likely come with a huge price tag in any trade. . . . the Reds would probably have to offer up at the very least an outfielder such as Jesse Winker, probably a bullpen arm like Michael Lorenzen, and a top prospect like Jonathan India.”

In Web article “Cincinnati Reds: Trading for Noah Syndergaard would be worth the cost”

And then Caldwell added, “I wouldn’t be opposed to them making a deal like this at all.”

Adam Weinrib on 12up.com wrote with regard to the Twins trading for Syndergaard, “they should make this move 10 out of 10 times, regardless of cost” in the article, “Twins Must Bite the Bullet and Pay High Price for Noah Syndergaard.”

If Syndergaard is traded, it will the Mets first major deal since the Cano/Diaz debacle, one in which Puma said the Mets got

“an underperforming 36-year-old second baseman, who is under contract through 2023 and a closer who still hasn’t shown he can handle the stress that comes with pitching in New York.”

Mike Puma in Web article “Brodie Van Wagenen can’t afford to make wrong Noah Syndergaard call.”

That deal, coupled with the Mets trades for Broxton and Font, has raised questions about the Mets’ ability to properly vet players, questions the organization has yet to adequately answer.

To prevent a fan rebellion, the Mets will need to get a return as good as the one the Rays got last July when they traded Chris Archer to the Pirates.

Finally, the cost of keeping Syndergaard must also be taken into consideration.

If he continues to pitch as well as if not better than he has up to the point when he reaches free agency (2022), can we really expect the Wilpons to meet his salary demands then, which could be for even more money than deGrom got?

If the Mets believe they can re-sign Syndergaard by the time he reaches free agency, they should keep him. If they have doubts, they should trade him when his value is high, which it is now. However, trading Syndergaard involves risk, one the Mets should only take if it includes multiple, highly ranked MLB prospects, with one preferably comparable in skill to the Padres’ shortstop Fernando Tatís.

Main data source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/S5g9q
Search criteria: From 1962 to 2019, playing for NYM, as starter, in first 107 games, (requiring IPouts>=3), sorted by greatest number of games in all seasons matching the selected criteria.

Cano’s swing could be lowering his batting average

Posted on by metbaseball

It’s being written that Mets second baseman Robinson Cano is not as good a hitter as he has been in the past. Here is some evidence that supports that assertion:

  • He never had an OBP under .300. His previous low was .305 in 2008. In 2019 it is .277. His lowest batting average was .271 in 2008. This season he is hitting .228.
  • His lowest slugging percentage was .410 in 2008. This season, it is .369.
  • His OPS is .646. He never before had an OPS below .700.

Is that evidence sufficient for someone to conclude that Cano is not the same hitter he was in previous seasons? Not yet.

Cano could be unlucky.

His xBA (Expected Batting Average) for 2019 is .268, 40 points higher than his actual batting average; however, that is under his prior season low of .271 in 2008.

In addition, this season, his BABIP is .270 (43 for 159). Fewer batted balls are resulting in hits. Only twice before (2008 and 2017) in his 15 seasons playing in the majors did he have a BABIP below .300.

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is a statistic which measures how often non-home run batted balls (often called ‘balls in play’) fall for hits.

FanGraphs

“A ball is ‘in play” when the plate appearance ends in something other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher’s interference, sacrifice bunt, or home run,” according to FanGraphs.

The 2019 League average BABIP is .296, so Cano’s is 26 points or about 10 percent less than it.

Is he just having back luck this year? No. Cano is having trouble at the plate with balls he is not putting into play.

  • His K/PA ratio of .195 is the highest in his career. For his career, it is .126. Plus, his K% is 19.2%, the highest one in the last five seasons.
  • His HR/PA ratio of .018 is the lowest of his career, and this is in a season when so many homers are being that the reason why is under investigation. For his career, it is .035.
  • His BB/K ratio of .302 is his lowest since 2005. For his career, it is .522.

Is he still making solid contact? “The harder a ball is hit, the more likely it is to fall in for a hit,” according to FanGraphs. When Cano is hitting the ball, his average Exit Velocity of 90.6 mph is close to his average of of 90.8 mph from 2015 to today; however, his Hard Hit % is on the decline even though.

A hard-hit ball is one hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph. This season he has hard hit 72 balls, ranking him 114th in MLB.

Source: Baseball Savant

He is having the most trouble hitting off-speed pitches hard.

Source: Baseball Savant

Other significant changes are these: (1) His GB% is the highest it has been since 2015, and (2) his average Launch Angle is the lowest it has been since 2015.

Source: Baseball Savant

Further, since 2018 he is getting much less loft on breaking pitches, and since 2016, the loft he is getting on fastballs has shown a steady decline.

Source: Baseball Savant

Given that his exit velocity has not slowed, could his launch angle drop be intentional?

In 2019, 52.1% of his batted balls were ground balls. His batting average on ground balls is .165 (14 for 85) where the League average is .240 or 75 points higher. In comparison, his batting average on fly balls is .222 — the League average is .302, and on line drives it is .574 where the League’s is .630.

The table below presents Cano’s batting average by launch angle.

Launch AngleAverage
>= 30°.083
20° to 30°.381
10° to 20°.692
0° to 10°.444
<= 0°.108
<= -10°.044

When he is either swinging down or with an attack angle above 30°, Cano is barely hitting .100 at best. Therefore, if he reduces the number of times he swings downward and tries to keep his launch angle within the 0° to 30° range, he should see improvement in his batting average. However, until his batting average starts rising it could help him, pressure-wise, if he bats lower in the order.

Statistical Investigation: Jeurys Familia

Posted on by metbaseball

A FanGraphs article in 2017 titled “The Death of the Sinker” ended with this quote: “I don’t think the sinker’s gone,” [Jared] Hughes said. “I think teams might be trying to find a way to focus on velocity, but in my opinion, the sinker is the best pitch in baseball.”

This season, for Mets reliever Jeurys Familia, that has not been the case. Though his most-used pitch has been the sinker, thrown 47.1% of the time, it has not been his most effective one.

Stat Fact: His ERA is 7.81. That is the 5th highest ERA in Major League Baseball out of 167 qualifying relievers. Plus his BB/9 of 6.83 is also 5th highest in the majors.

Opposing batters are hitting .333 against his sinker, much higher than in the previous four years. (It was .204 in 2015). That is almost 40 points higher than the 2019 League average against sinkers of .294.

Stat Fact: Familia ranked 39th in opposing batting average among relievers who had thrown sinkers to at least 25 batters.

And since 2017, when Familia has thrown his sinker opposing hitters SLG has increased every year from .265 to .377 to .521. That is 256 points. Further, when the first pitch in an at-bat is a sinker, they are hitting .556.

Stat Fact: Familia also ranked 39th in slugging percentage among relievers who had thrown sinkers to at least 25 batters.

Compounding Familia’s problems is that fact that opposing batters have gotten more extra-base hits off his sinker, six, than his other three pitches combined.

Historically, the sinker has been known as the ground ball pitch. As Kepner wrote in his book, K: A History of Baseball in Ten Pitches, “Its allure was efficiency, not force. Throw it low for ground balls.”

Familia has even had trouble doing that. Since 2016, the percent of his sinkers that have resulted in ground balls has steadily declined.

% of Jeurys Familia’s sinkers that resulted in ground balls

Surprisingly this season, as the GB% for his sinker has dropped, for his four-seam fastball — a pitch he has thrown only 12.9% of the time, it has increased. However, opposing batters are hitting .333 when he throws a four-seamer, the same opposing BA as for his sinker.

Source: Baseball Savant

Team Options

  • Reduce the number of sinkers Familia throws so it is no longer his main pitch. This season, against his slider batters are hitting .212, but he has only thrown it 27.9% of the time. Increase its usage.
  • Have him throw his four-seam fastball in place of his slider.
  • Determine whether a physical issue might be either causing or contributing to his pitching problems.

Update: The Mets have placed Familia on the 10-day injured list with a Bennett lesion for the second time this season. According to the book Baseball Sports Medicine, it is an “overuse” injury that can affect both shoulders and elbows. “Nonoperative treatment” includes rest, activity modification, and rehabilitation.” For more information on this injury and Familia’s earlier placement in May on the injured list, see Anthony DiComo’s mlb.com article.